Abstract
一、Several scientific reports indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rains have increased in Taiwan during the past 100 years. Some model projections demonstrate that the wet season will become wetter and dry season will be drier in the future, it also predicts that the average increase of extreme daily rainfall will be 10% to 30% in almost all regions of Taiwan by the end of twenty-first century. Taiwan is a high-risk area of natural disasters because of its steep mountains, active geological events and intense anthropogenic land use. The increase of extreme climatic events might result in higher risks of hydrometeorological disasters, and make the rural areas be in a worse situation, especially for indigenous villages and poor-economically developed counties.
二、For these reasons, TFRI designed an integrated project, which incoporated hydrological and water-soil disaster researches, aerial and landscape inventory, rural environment and soil survey, and economical assessment of agriculture and forestry industry, to estimate the carrying capacity of different land use types and ecosystems. Results of this study will be applied to reveal the potential and risk of land slide events among different land use, but also evaluate the impacts of natural disaster on agriculture, forestry industry and rural economy.
三、This project will take Kao-Ping river watershed located in southern Taiwan as studying area in 2019. We will develop a GIS-based model, which is constructed by important factors include present and historical land use, distribution of disaster potential, limitation of slope land use and social-economical activties, to delineate the carrying capacity of forest and slope land. We believe that it will be a feasible strategical equipment for striking the balance between economical land use and environmental resource conservation.