Abstract
Spatial-based analysis of resource carrying capacity and rural industries distribution (4/4)一、Several scientific reports indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rains have increased in Taiwan during the past 100 years. Some model projections demonstrate that the wet season will become wetter and dry season will be drier in the future, it also predicts that the average increase of extreme daily rainfall will be 10% to 30% in almost all regions of Taiwan by the end of twenty-first century. Taiwan is a high-risk area of natural disasters because of its steep mountains, active geological events and intense anthropogenic land use. The increase of extreme climatic events might result in higher risks of hydrometeorological disasters, and make the rural areas be in a worse situation, especially for indigenous villages and poor-economically developed counties.二、For these reasons, TFRI designed an integrated project, which incoporated hydrological and water-soil disaster researches, aerial and landscape inventory, rural environment and soil survey, and economical assessment of agriculture and forestry industry, to estimate the carrying capacity of different land use types and ecosystems. Results of this study will be applied to reveal the potential and risk of land slide events among different land use, but also evaluate the impacts of natural disaster on agriculture, forestry industry and rural economy.三、This project will take Kao-Ping river watershed located in southern Taiwan as studying area in 2019. We will develop a GIS-based model, which is constructed by important factors include present and historical land use, distribution of disaster potential, limitation of slope land use and social-economical activties, to delineate the carrying capacity of forest and slope land. We believe that it will be a feasible strategical equipment for striking the balance between economical land use and environmental resource conservation.Investigation on the impacts of natural resources by the changes of land use in the mountain village(3/3)一、Taiwan is one of the world’s worst natural disaster area and this situation tends more severe due to the impacts of global warming which made the extreme rain events not caused by typhoon more frequency than before not to mention that cause by typhoon. Heavy rainfalls are commonly occurred in local or large-scale areas due to the characteristics of spatial and temporal uneven distribution of rainfall and those rainfall amounts often exceed the design of mountain drainage facilities which results flooding, sand disasters and losing of life and property. Typhoon Morakot is a typical example of extreme weather event which caused unprecedented severe disasters in typhoon history of Taiwan. The frequency and scale of meteorological disasters have become more difficult to predict and the large scale of landslides and slope collapses induced by rainfall are prone to happened more and more frequent in mountainous area.二、Therefore, it is necessary to establish consistent interpretation criteria by analysis historical landslides for understanding the dynamic changes and causes of slope collapses in large and medium catchment area. Then according to the causes and characteristics of disasters, the relevant countermeasures and management plan can be made for governments at all levels. This project tries to conduct the interpretation of landslides in the study area from remote sensing data and satellite images through the geographic information system techniques combined with overlapping maps of environmental factors (roads, streams, geologically sensitive areas, rainfall intensity distribution, land use availability or land use patterns) to judge the main causes and mechanisms of slope failures and collapsed land and propose management countermeasures as a reference for relevant public affairs departments in prevention and treatment of disaster, rehabilitation of degraded land, and disaster prevention and relief. In addition, the investigation on the ability of water conservation for a watershed is another focal topic of this project. Although there are many approaches to estimate the ability of water conservation for a watershed such as soil porosity estimation, water budget balance method, baseflow separation technique and recession-curve- displacement method, all of them have using limitations and advantages and disadvantages and limited on static calculating amount of water within a certain period of time. In view of this, this study will compare different approach by using historical rainfall and discharge records of small upstream forested water to determine the most suitable approach for estimation the amount of conserved water and clarify the influence of rainfall characteristics on water conservation in the first year.三、The impact of natural disturbances (landslides) on water conservation will be explored in the second year. Then the functional relationship among rainfall characteristics (amount, intensity and distribution), natural environmental factors (geology, soil, topography and vegetation) and disturbance (landslides, land use patterns) will be established in the third year. Hopefully we can more understanding the key factors that affecting water conservation in forest watersheds and analyze the impact of extreme climate on water and soil resources.Assessment of mountain village communities’ resistance and adaption to natural hazards based on their socio-economic conditions 一、Land use impacts the development of industries. Reversely, the distribution, expansion and structure of industries affect the efficiency of productivity of land. The ability for land to withstand the elements of natural hazards (e.g. extreme weather incidents) differs with its types of utilization. Therefore, land use, development and structure of industries, and natural hazards (extreme weather incident) are correlated in their cause-effect relationship. In addition, the different degrees of natural disasters and of vulnerability determine the highs and lows of natural hazard risks. The vulnerability varies with different physical environments and socio-economic conditions.二、Given that, this 4-year project has completed a basic survey on the targeted areas (Shui-Li Brook and other watersheds) and the establishment of the structures of their systems. This study addresses to their climate-related disaster mechanisms of the mountain communities neighboring the forests, thus establishing evaluation indicators and weighted criteria for socioeconomic vulnerability. Accordingly, the impact of natural hazards on the economic values of industries can be assessed.三、2019 is the fourth year of this project, finish the social vulnerability assessment in Kaohsiung and Pingtung areas; investigate the experience and risk awareness in agricultural and forestry village community; analysis on the spatial distribution of economic impact of meteorological disasters and the vulnerability of agricultural forest industry.